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Thursday, August 30, 2007

World Series of Poker Main Event 2007 Hand Analysis

By: The Monster Stack (Guest Blogger)

Hello,

Who am I to argue with an 11 time world champion and Hall of Famer Phil Hellmuth? I'm not exactly near his level and despite what I think of the way he acts at the table - he needs to stop crying about be re-raised when he has nothing - he has proven for nearly two decades that he is the best No Limit Hold 'Em tournament player. His results tell quite the story.

Before I get to the hand in question I want to prefix it with a little tidbit on Hellmuth's game. He likes to play small pots with marginal hands and get it all-in with the nuts. When he has what he believes to be the best hand, but not the best possible hand, he throws out a small bet. On the flop. On the turn. And then on the river. If he wins, he wins a reasonably sized pot. If he loses, he berates his opponent's play but only loses a relatively small pot. If he gets re-raised along the way he has the awesome ability to throw away a monster, albeit with quite the tantrum. He likes to trap a lot and does it masterfully. He also seems to know the exact right time to throw in a bluff.

I do, however, have a bone to pick with Hellmuth on the way in which he played this particular hand during the 2007 World Series of Poker Main Event. I don't know what the blinds and antes were at the time but the action went something like this (according to Phil as the ESPN cameras came to the table). Phil limped with Ah-Ks in late position, a typical trap by the 11 time bracelet winner. He got raised by either the button or by the player to his right (who had apparently also limped) and Phil re-raised to $3,000. Both players called with the button holding 4s-4c and the middle position player holding 3h-3d.

The flop came down 7s Kc 7h, a perfect flop for Hellmuth's hand. There was $12,400 in the pot and it was checked to Hellmuth who bet out $2,000. I believe that this is mistake number one for Hellmuth. What is the purpose of a bet this size? Is he trying to take down the pot? If he is $2,000 is probably not going to do it. With so much in the pot he is likely to get a caller being that the bet is so small. His opponents are getting more than 7-1 on the call. Now I know Hellmuth likes to keep the pot small but he re-raised pre-flop and got two callers. The time for small pots has passed. On top of that, the pot size represents nearly all of Hellmuth's stack. He can almost double up without a showdown by taking down this pot. If he intended to play a small pot he should not have put in a re-raise pre-flop. One of the reasons to do that, in addition to taking it down right there, is to build a pot with a big hand.

The turn was the Js. Now this is where Hellmuth simply gave the hand away. He checked. What can he possibly be trying to accomplish with this check? Is he going for the check-raise all-in? That is not very likely to work anyway since his opponent would have to be on a stone cold bluff to fold with so few chips left. Or, his opponent would have to have the exact type of hand he happened to have, however it is extremely unlikely that he would bet that on the turn anyway. There is absolutely no benefit to checking here. Hellmuth had less than less than $11,000 chips left with over $16,000 in the pot. He absolutely must bet the turn here. It is pretty hard for him to be beat here.

The river brings the absolute worst card for Hellmuth and a beautiful card for his opponent, the 4d, giving him fours full of sevens. Now Hellmuth decides to bet. He bets $3,000 into a $16,000 pot. With what hand could his opponent have that would call the flop, check the turn, and then call the river? My best guess is that Hellmuth put his opponent on a medium pair and was hoping that the guy would look him up because the pot was so big. This has to be the worst value bet ever, particularly since he had the worst hand. He essential gave his opponent two free cards to draw out. After betting the river Hellmuth was moved all-in at which point he bemoans his back luck, berates all the players at the table, complains that he never gets any cards and folds, leaving himself with just about $5,000 in chips.

Had Hellmuth bet bigger on the flop, or even made a sizable bet on the turn he would have doubled up and proclaimed his greatness for a few more hands, or maybe all the way to the final table. Big hands are meant to be played strongly. Slow playing only gets one into trouble and, although his opponent had just two outs to win, Hellmuth allowed his opponent to get there and has only himself to blame. He simply outplayed himself on this hand and attempted to get too fancy at the wrong time. He created a big pot, something which he does not like to do, and did not protect his hand with so much at stake. I believe that he played this hand wrong on every street from the flop onward.

So remember to respect your big hands and treat as they should be treated. Like a rare commodity. They don't come along often so you need to make the most of them when they do.

See you on the felt,
The Monster Stack

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